NCJ Number
246639
Journal
Criminal Justice and Behavior Volume: 41 Issue: 2 Dated: February 2014 Pages: 163-180
Date Published
February 2014
Length
18 pages
Annotation
Recent published predictive validation studies of risk assessment instruments commonly used the explanatory power of Receiver Operating Characteristics ROC analysis.
Abstract
Recent published predictive validation studies of risk assessment instruments commonly used the explanatory power of Receiver Operating Characteristics ROC analysis. The present study also tested the predictive validity of the Revised Domestic Violence Screening Instrument DVSI-R by conducting a ROC analysis of 18-month follow-up data post assessment from the entire state of Connecticut between January 1, 2010, and May 31, 2012. With a sample of 29,317, the analysis examined rearrests for new family violence incidents and new violations of protective or restraining orders. The sample was predominantly male 70%, with an average age of 34 years, and equally split between non-Latino White and minority perpetrators. Moving beyond the explanatory power of ROC analysis, the Kaplan-Meier KM estimator of the survival function was used to examine the cumulative probability of rearrest during the time at-risk period. In addition to determining the survival functions of perpetrators based on their level of risk as identified by their DVSI-R total numeric risk scores, the analysis examined differences by characteristics of perpetrators, an issue given scant attention in prior research. Survival analyses identified critical times after intake assessments when those who reoffended were at greatest risk and significant differences in timing of reoffending by gender and ethnicity. Implications for intervention are discussed. Abstract published by arrangement with Sage.