PLANS, EVALUATIONS, AND DECISIONS

• NCJ Number: 51140
• Journal: EVALUATION Volume: 2 Issue: 1 Dated: (1974) Pages: 58-74
• Author(s): M GUTTENTAG; K SNAPPER
• Date Published: 1974
• Length: 9 pages
• Corporate Author: Minneapolis Medical Research Foundation, Inc
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Program/Project Evaluation
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE STEP-BY-STEP APPLICATION OF A DECISION-THEORISTIC APPROACH TO THE PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF RESEARCH AND PROGRAMS IN THE OFFICE OF CHILD DEVELOPMENT (OCD) IS OUTLINED.

Abstract

BY RELATING DATA ABOUT STATES OF THE WORLD TO DECISIONMAKER VALUES, THE DECISION-THEORETIC APPROACH PERMITS THE EVALUATION OF PROGRAMS OR ALTERNATIVE ACTIONS IN TERMS OF THE EXTENT TO WHICH THEY MAXIMIZE IMPORTANT VALUES. THE APPROACH IS EMPLOYED BY THE OFFICE OF CHILD DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE. TEN STEPS IN THE APPROACH ARE: IDENTIFY THE ORGANIZATION WHOSE UTILITIES ARE TO BE MAXIMIZED, IDENTIFY THE ISSUE OR ISSUES TO WHICH NEEDED UTILITIES ARE RELEVANT, DELINEATE THE ENTITIES TO BE EVALUATED, IDENTIFY RELEVANT DIMENSIONS OF VALUE, RANK THESE DIMENSIONS IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE, RATE DIMENSIONS IN TERMS OF IMPORTANCE WHILE PRESERVING RATIOS, SUM IMPORTANT WEIGHTS AND THEN DIVIDE EACH BY THE SUM AND MULTIPLY BY 100, MEASURE THE LOCATION OF THE ENTITY BEING EVALUATED ON EACH DIMENSION, CALCULATE UTILITIES FOR ENTITIES (EQUATION FOR THIS CALCULATION IS GIVEN), AND MAXIMIZE UTILITIES. THE OCD RESEARCH PLAN, BASED ON THESE 10 STEPS, IS DESCRIBED IN DETAIL. A MATRIX HAS BEEN GENERATED AS PART OF THE MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY PLANNING PROCESS. ALL VALUES THAT HAVE BEEN RANK ORDERED AND IMPORTANCE WEIGHTED ARE IN THE MATRIX. IN THE EVALUATION PROCESS, DATA ARE GATHERED THROUGH EITHER EXPERIMENTAL OR NONEXPERIMENTAL MEANS AND, WITH A BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHOD, ARE USED TO REVISE PRIOR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS INTO POSTERIOR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. AT ANY STAGE IN THE EVALUATION PROCESS, VALUES CAN BE CHANGED, DELETED, OR ADDED. EVALUATION INFORMATION NOT ONLY HELPS IN THE REVISION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS BUT ALSO DIRECTLY INFLUENCES THE CHOICE OF WHAT VALUES MAY BE MAINTAINED. IN THIS WAY, PLANNING AND EVALUATION ARE CLOSELY LINKED. SCHEMATICS OF THE EVALUATION PROCESS ARE INCLUDED. (DEP)