NCJ Number
176235
Date Published
1998
Length
6 pages
Annotation
A research project was initiated in England to develop a model to predict the future demand for the training of probationer constables, the goals being to forecast each year's demand more accurately, to manage demand in order to minimize fluctuations throughout the year, and to rationalize National Police Training (NPT) centers so the future demand could be met more cost-effectively.
Abstract
Data were collected from NPT training schools and police forces on demand and throughput patterns for the last 7 years. NPT data revealed considerable fluctuations in the number of probationers processed through training schools. The unpredictability of demand made it difficult for NPT centers to plan how to best deploy their resources. Some police forces readily provided the requested data, while others did not record the data being sought or could only generate the data with some effort. Even when police forces provided data, the information was often based on "guestimates" and police forces consistently reported it was unrealistic to expect accurate predictions of the future demand for probationer training. Additional research conducted to identify factors that appeared to explain the unreliable predictions police forces made about probationer throughput led the authors to conclude NPT centers should be more proactive in managing police training. Recommendations on how to improve probationer throughput are offered. 2 figures