NCJ Number
208225
Journal
Risk Management: An International Journal Volume: 6 Issue: 4 Dated: 2004 Pages: 9-25
Date Published
2004
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This paper shows how and to what extent the perception and framing of the security risks under negotiation influence the procedures of the agenda-setting, discussions, signing, and execution of international agreements.
Abstract
The study developed four hypotheses concerning the roles of both substance-specific and party-specific modes of risk perception in framing the model of the negotiation process. These hypotheses were then preliminarily tested. One hypothesis was that low probability/high-consequences risks would lead to an early start to the parties/negotiations, more eagerness to conclude and sign an agreement to reduce the threat or possible damage, and more willingness to comply with the agreed terms. A second hypothesis was that with the risks from natural sources perceived as known and more familiar, the parties would be better prepared for negotiations, would understand each other more easily during talks, would reach an agreement or compromise, and would show more willingness to comply with agreed terms, than would be the case with man-made risks. The third hypothesis was that the talks would tend to focus on rules and procedures to reduce or avert risk in compliance with existing international standards, or by developing such standards. The fourth hypothesis was that commonalities between national cultures and the professions of those involved in negotiations would reinforce each other, leading to the parties' modes of risk perception coalescing or converging. These hypotheses were tested with an analysis of data on national crisis policies in the Baltic Sea region (Porfiriev, 2001). The discussion begins with a consideration of the substance-related factors of risk perception, primarily the impact of the risk dread and familiarity factors on negotiation. This is followed by an analysis of party-related factors in the variability of risk interpretation and their implications for the negotiation process. 5 notes and 38 references