Part 1: Time Series Analysis of Criminal Justice Data (From Crimes and Punishments: A Comparative Study of Temporal Variations, P 1-44, 1987, Soumyo D Moitra -See NCJ-116167)

• NCJ Number: 116168
• Author(s): S D Moitra
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 44 pages
• Sale Source: Max-Planck-Institute Fur Auslandisches und Internationales Strafrecht
• Publication Type: Survey (Cross-Cultural)
• Language: English
• Country: West Germany (Former)

Annotation

This paper reviews previous research on trends in the rates of crime and imprisonment in various countries and summarizes the purpose and methodology of the present study of the temporal patterns of crimes, arrests, and imprisonment in the Federal Republic of Germany, the United States, and several other European countries.

Abstract

Previous research noting the stability of imprisonment rates regardless of changes in crime rates is noted. The use of time series analysis is discussed in terms of its ability to examine four hypotheses: 1) that imprisonment is directly related to crime rates, 2) that imprisonment has criminogenic effects, 3) that deterrence is increased, and 4) that the criminal justice system adapts to changes in the crime rate. The present study uses a comparative approach to examine the relationship between the socioeconomic variables and the crime or imprisonment rate, based on official statistics providing both aggregate and disaggregated data from 1953 to 1983. Data are analyzed using correlation and regression analysis and multivariate models.