Parole Risk Assessment: A Tool for Managing Prison Populations and Recidivism (From Observations on Parole, P 77-82, 1987, Edwin E Rhine and Ronald W Jackson, eds. -- See NCJ-107459)

• NCJ Number: 107838
• Author(s): D R Fischer
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 6 pages
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Recent recidivism risk assessments developed in Iowa and Arizona have shown a level of accuracy ranging between 85 and 90 percent in recent validation studies.

Abstract

This improvement in accuracy has been made possible by refinement in the scoring and weighting of predictive factors. High-risk offenders generally exhibit one or more of the following characteristics: a close concatenation of felony convictions, relatively recent violent prior felony conviction, current violent recidivism, recent prior arrest for a violent felony, serious drug use history, and current major institutional violence. Factors found not to predict serious recidivism or violence with any significant accuracy include psychological evaluations, history of alcohol abuse, time served, or treatment/rehabilitative endeavors. In addition, severity of instant offense in the absence of other predictors and prior offenses without reference to recency or severity are not good predictors. Arizona parole risk assessment criteria are appended.