NCJ Number
126179
Date Published
1982
Length
104 pages
Annotation
This study, designed and implemented by the National Parole Board and Solicitor General of Canada between 1975 and 1977, used a sample of 2,500 full-parole decisions in order to determine factors that were most strongly correlated to the decision outcome. The results of analysis were used to create a model of National Parole Board decision-making.
Abstract
The findings indicate that offender characteristics, related to the probability that the offender would be re-arrested after release, was more significantly correlated to parole decisions than the seriousness of the offense itself. Three statistical techniques were used to predict recidivism within three years of release. The simple summation method was most effective in distinguishing between high and low risk inmates. This method was able to identify inmates unlikely to be rearrested for violent offenses, although it was less capable in identifying high risk inmates. The report recommends that guidelines be adopted by the National Parole Board in order to incorporate this predictive capability. Offenders classified as good statistical risks would be granted an operating presumption favoring full parole release at their initial date of eligibility while poor risk inmates would move into a program of graduated conditional releases. 16 tables, 6 figures, and 4 appendixes