Parole and the Return to Crime - The Effects of Prerelease and Postrelease Factors

• NCJ Number: 78515
• Author(s): J S Fairweather
• Date Published: 1980
• Length: 163 pages
• Sale Source: UMI Dissertation Services
• Publication Type: Thesis/Dissertation
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS. Stanford University - doctoral dissertation.

Annotation

The purpose of this study is to develop a model to identify factors related to the failure of parole so that these may lead to recommendations for parole board practice and parole policy.

Abstract

A critique of the literature on parole reviews studies dating from 1923 to 1974 and analyzes the methodological reasons for their lack of success in predicting recidivism. The alternative approach proposed here is based on an understanding what happens to a person on parole. Two models of recidivism, a prerelease and a postrelease model, were constructed. The first considered socioeconomic background, criminal history, and behavior during incarceration. The second added the socioeconomic conditions of parole to the prerelease factors affecting recidivism. A random sample of 1,472 parolees released in Michigan in 1971 was used in the study. Data were collected for the length of the parole term or until a new offense within that term was detected. Sources of information were the parole board files, institutional files, and parole-agent files. Deviation scores were created for four age and race groups (young nonwhites, young whites, old nonwhites, and old whites). The scores were used to calculate a pooled covariance matrix within groups. Statistical analysis techniques produced results showing that parole socioeconomic conditions are the strongest predictors of recidivism. Economic stability during parole was positively related to success of parole, and drug problems during parole were negatively related to success. In addition, juvenile criminal activity was negatively related to parole success. Probability of parole failure was not assessed accurately from prerelease information, which is weakly related to recidivism. Therefore, the decision to release should be considered a preliminary estimate of risk to the community which is conditioned on postrelease factors indicative of parole outcomes, while the decision to revoke parole should be considered a set of judgments, conducted periodically, and based on trends indicative of parole outcome. Improvement for parolee employment and drug treatment programs is recommended. Footnotes, charts, and tabular data are provided. Appended is study documentation. Approximately 100 references are given. (Author abstract modified)