NCJ Number
196292
Journal
Law Enforcement Technology Volume: 29 Issue: 7 Dated: July 2002 Pages: 94,96-98,99
Date Published
July 2002
Length
5 pages
Annotation
This article discusses the use of statistical analysis software for crime prediction.
Abstract
The pin map of yesteryear is not equipped to meet the needs of today’s investigators or citizens. Some crime analysts have designed their own low-cost, law enforcement-specific software to meet the needs of analysts or administrators who have neither the funds nor the time to learn the intricate workings of statistical analysis packages. Crime analysis Associates’ (CAA’s) Crime Analysis Information System (CAIS) is based on principles used at the Alpha Group Center for Crime and Intelligence Analysis Training. CAIS’s tactical crime analysis predicts when and where a crime will happen next, based on existing cases. Other tactical tools include weighted time and location, location prediction, earliest data and time a crime might happen and split date, and time. Its time series analysis shows the busiest periods of time via a graphical breakdown that helps administrators decide when to assign the greatest number of officers. For strategic crime analysis, CAIS performs single-variable regression analysis, allowing agencies to plan for the future. On the administrative level, CAIS calculates the analysis of clearance rates, officer-to-population ratio, matching funds, fluctuations in crime, and population at risk. Bair Software, Research and Consulting (BSRC) Inc. produces Automated Tactical Analysis of Crime (ATAC), which uses a matrix to record all cases’ details and produces a variety of statistics. Although Time Scan is a separate, more advanced tool, many of its capabilities have been incorporated in ATAC. Among them are tracking crime frequencies via timelines, “tempograms,” “spectrograms,” and “virtual topologies.” BSRC’s TimeScan builds on these tools with a forecasting ability. Unlike ATAC, it also pulls in data from other databases and spreadsheets. BSRC’s Trend Tracker reports on already-identified trends, who found them, and their timespans. CADMine, from Corona Solutions, Inc., distills information from existing CAD software to provide workload, response-time, event counts, unit identity, and area information.