NCJ Number
57990
Journal
American Journal of Criminal Law Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Dated: (MARCH 1979) Pages: 47-66
Date Published
1979
Length
20 pages
Annotation
A STANDARD CELERATION CHARTING (SCC) METHOD FOR SYSTEMS ANALYSIS CAN BE A RAPID, EASILY INTERPRETABLE, AND INEXPENSIVE TOOL FOR COMPUTING TRENDS AND EVENTS IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, AND CRIME CONDITIONS.
Abstract
SCC HAS UNIFORM DIMENSIONS SO THAT READING ABSOLUTE FREQUENCIES AND ACCELERATIONS OR DECELERATIONS CAN AID IN VISUALLY COMPARING GROWTH IN AND BETWEEN LEGAL VARIABLES. SINCE THE CHART IS PROPORTIONED GEOMETRICALLY, MULTIPLICATIVE CHANGES UP OR DOWN ARE EMPHASIZED. A SEMILOGARITHMIC CHART AXIS REPRESENTS CELERATIONS OF EQUAL SIZE BY PARALLEL LINES AT EQUAL ANGLES. WHEN MAJOR FACETS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEMS (VARIABLES RELATING TO CRIMINAL JUSTICE COSTS, INFLATION, POPULATION, TOTAL CRIMES AND TOTAL ARRESTS; A COST-PRODUCT ANALYSIS OF THE JUDICIAL AND REHABILITATIVE BRANCHES; GROWTH OF JUVENILE DELINQUENCY ARRESTS AND COURT CASES; AND TRENDS AND FREQUENCIES OF TYPES OF CRIMES) ARE CHARTED LONGITUDINALLY AND PROJECTED TO THE YEAR 2000, A NUMBER OF PHENOMENA CAN BE OBSERVED. PROTECTIVE SERVICES OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM ARE BECOMING 8.5 PERCENT LESS EFFICIENT; FEDERAL AND STATE REHABILITATIVE SERVICES ARE BECOMING 11 PERCENT MORE EXPENSIVE EACH YEAR; FEDERAL JUDICIAL SERVICES ARE BECOMING ONLY 5 PERCENT LESS EFFICIENT ANNUALLY, AND JUVENILE DELINQUENCY ARRESTS HAVE BEEN GROWING BY OVER 6 PERCENT ANNUALLY WHILE DELINQUENCY COURT CASES HAVE BEEN MULTIPLYING BY OVER 8 PERCENT A YEAR. SCC ALLOWS FREQUENCIES OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 YEARS TO BE SEEN AT A GLANCE AND RAPID PROJECTION OF TREND LINES TO BE MADE SO THAT LEGAL TRENDS CAN BE MEASURED AND FORECASTED. CHARTS WITH CRIMINAL JUSTICE DATA ARE PROVIDED. (DAG)