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New South Wales Recorded Crime Statistics 2011

NCJ Number
Derek Goh; Steve Moffatt
Date Published
April 2012
60 pages
This report presents data on crime reported to, or detected by, the New South Wales (NSW) Police Force (Australia) from January 1995 to December 2011, with a focus on the statistical trends for the 24 months ending December 2011.
The report notes that during November and for part of December 2011, NSW Police Force "industrial action" (not defined in the report) meant that fewer incidents than expected were recorded by police for some offenses. The authors estimated that due to this "industrial action," overall recorded assault counts could be up to 1.5 percent below expected levels for 2011.This effect can be clearly seen for the last 2 months, which is strongly influenced by aggregate assault levels. The authors estimate that the effect of this "industrial action" on other major offenses is well below 1 percent for 2011; however, offenses such as offensive conduct, offensive language, drug offenses, and other involved police enforcement and issuing of infringements have counts below expected levels for November and December 2011.This report includes an overview of trends in the most recent 2-year period for major offense categories, for NSW and across NSW regions broken down to the Local Government Area (LGA) level. At the State level, for the 24-month period to the end of December 2011, one major offense category has been trending upward, i.e., assault (non-domestic violence-related), robbery without a weapon, and break-and-enter dwelling. Since the authors had concerns that the "industrial action" in later 2011 may have lowered the counts for assault (non-domestic violence-related), an offense that peaks in the warmer months, the authors conducted additional analyses, controlling for trends and seasonality. These analyses indicated that the reported 7.0-percent significant declines reduced to 5.4 percent when predicted counts were used for the last 2 months of the test period. Extensive tables and appended supplementary trends, definitions, maps, LGAs in Metropolitan Statistical Subdivisions and NSW regional statistical divisions