NCJ Number
149356
Journal
Journal of Crime and Justice Volume: 17 Issue: 1 Dated: (1994) Pages: 1-24
Date Published
1994
Length
24 pages
Annotation
Recent longitudinal analyses of macrosocial data indicate that formal sanctions have little, if any, effect on the aggregate supply of crime; the present investigation sought to extend previous research by examining the influence of objective measures of monetary gain from crime, the risk of apprehension, and legitimate economic opportunities on the aggregate supply of economic crime in Oklahoma City.
Abstract
Multivariate Autoregression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) techniques were used to analyze monthly data for the 1975-1989 period. Relative gains from crime were estimated as the offense-specific ratio of monetary gain from crime to the risk of apprehension. Monetary gain was measured as the total monetary value from stolen property for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft. ARIMA models showed that monetary gain from crime had no effect on the aggregate supply of economic crime. Although unemployment was inversely related to monetary gain per crime for robbery and auto theft, monetary gain did not appear to mediate the effects of unemployment on crime. Marginal changes in legal and economic structures had little or no bearing on the aggregate supply of crime. Implications of the findings for utilitarian theory are discussed. 51 references, 8 endnotes, and 4 tables