Modeling the Payoffs of Interventions to Reduce Adolescent Vulnerability: Concepts and Measurement, (From Adolescent Risk and Vulnerability, P 73-108, 2001, Baruch Fischhoff, Elena O. Nightingale et al., eds. -- See NCJ-191229)

• NCJ Number: 191233
• Author(s): Martha R. Burt; Janine M. Zweig; John Roman
• Date Published: 2001
• Length: 36 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: Carnegie Corporation of New York; National Acad of Sciences
• Sale Source: National Academies Press
• Publication Format: Book (Softbound)
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This paper illuminates the costs and opportunities of various policy choices with respect to investing in youth.

Abstract

The authors identified the payoffs of youth risk behavior to the public purse, and captured the broader context that included personal and private costs and benefits. They also examined the payoff patterns of youth risk behavior, rather than a single type of risk behavior. The approach involved modeling a conceptual framework containing three sets of transitional probabilities: 1) from antecedent risk factors to risk behavior patterns; 2) from risk behavior pattern to outcomes (pregnancy, addiction, suicide, jail, CEO of Fortune 500 company); and (3) from outcomes to payoffs (probability of using or contributing to public resources/well-being, private resources/well-being). The paper was structured to address three components of the conceptual framework. The first component went from risk/vulnerability factors to risky behavior. The second component went from risk behaviors to outcomes, both positive and negative. The third component translated outcomes of risk behavior patterns into payoffs. The goal of this paper was to develop one or more frameworks for analyzing the payoffs of adolescent behavior and the outcomes that follow from it in adulthood. Tables, figures, and references