NCJ Number
80913
Date Published
1981
Length
64 pages
Annotation
This user's manual provides a general discussion of the Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines (MSG) population model and a more specific description of how to use the population projection. Users of the manual should have some experience with social science methodology and software.
Abstract
The MSG model is designed to test the effect of sentencing policies on prison populations by producing prison population projections for a 5-year time frame. The projections generated by the MSG projection model are based on microlevel data (i.e., data on individual cases). Movement through the system is generated by parameters in the model. The model provides for assigning probabilities of imprisonment to cases in each category defined by the user. Four data files are needed to operate the population projection: a probability file, a base file, a microdata file, and an adjustment file. In addition, the major parameters describing correction and parole board practices that are maintained in the projection program are probability of work release, of revocation or work release, of parole/supervised release revocation, etc. The model provides extensive information on the impact of sentencing policy in two areas: (1) prison populations for a 5-year period and (2) the elements of the process which generate the projected prison populations, including a delineation by month of new court commitments, probation revocations, parole/supervision release revocations, and releases from prison. The MSG program is written in Fortran IV and is nearly 2,000 lines in length with about 25 procedures or subroutines. Instructions for using the program and descriptions and examples of the population projection output are provided. Appendixes describe and illustrate the program structure and subroutines, discuss acquisition and modification of the MSG programs, and provide an example of program output. Flow charts and diagrams are included.