NCJ Number
92940
Date Published
1984
Length
25 pages
Annotation
This paper outlines a model for predicting attrition of personnel, particularly retirement, in the Illinois Department of Law Enforcement that represents a simple mathematical treatment of historic trends in death, resignation, and retirement.
Abstract
Surveys of officers eligible for retirement have not provided adequate information for projections because individual plans and subsequent actions vary and such data do not account for deaths and resignations. This model considers a retiring officer as one who has at least 20 years of service and is age 46 or older. The computations apply only to officers who have graduated from the training academy and began patrol at the rank of trooper. Two sets of data are required: (1) a summary of attrition covering reason for departure and month and year of birth, start of service, and departure; (2) a current roster of personnel showing their date of birth and start of service. Based on a matrix of currently employed officers, the model computes probability of attrition resulting from death and then projects deaths for any year. It uses the same procedures to calculate probabilities and projections for resignations and retirements. Microcomputers can perform these calculations rapidly. The report describes the computation processes and computer operations in detail. The model is particularly useful for projecting retirement in a closed body with a definite limit in retirement, such as armed forces, the police, and fire departments. Tables, formulas, and examples are supplied.