NCJ Number
86409
Journal
Research Bulletin Issue: 14 Dated: (1982) Pages: 16-20
Date Published
1982
Length
5 pages
Annotation
This article explains the structure and expected benefits of a mathematical model being developed for the criminal justice system of England and Wales.
Abstract
The main objective of the model is to represent in a systematic, quantitative manner the principal interactions between the constituent parts (police, courts, prison, and probation service) of the criminal justice system, so that the effects of significant changes in one part of the system can be demonstrated. The criminal justice system can be thought of as equivalent to a set of reservoirs of limited capacity (prisons) fed by constructed links (courts) through which cases and people flow. The model under development will simulate the flows mathematically for a number of consecutive annual cycles, so that progressive effects can be studied in case and remand delay times, prison congestion levels, and probation service workloads. The model is being constructed as a set of submodels, together with a linking model. Each subsystem necessarily will be represented in a generalized way. The emphasis is on sound representation of significant changes from current system characteristics and resource levels. The model will operate to show the progressive effects of changes in crime levels, law, policy, or practice on the flow of cases and offenders and the resulting effects on workloads, delays, resource demands and costs. It will also demonstrate the effects of changes in resources and expenditure in one subsystem on the workloads and operating characteristics of other subsystems. Four references are listed.