NCJ Number
192920
Journal
FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin Volume: 71 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2002 Pages: 1-6
Date Published
2002
Length
6 pages
Annotation
This article reviews the need for law enforcement to plan for the possibility of catastrophic situations.
Abstract
In an effort to deal with catastrophic situations, law enforcement needs to get accurate and current information. Various approaches are used by law enforcement to increase the chances that reliable information is received. One approach, called “deterministic,” tends to centralize all information by funneling it upward to a central processing point where high-ranking officials make all the decisions. An emphasis is placed on adding another headquarters, using faster computers, and employing more information gatherers. Another approach, called “probabilistic,” describes an organization that looks at operational skills as an art. In these types of organizations, personnel live with abstractness and operate in an environment of uncertainty. This type of organization values intuition, ingenuity, and initiative. A middle ground position uses scientific skills to obtain and evaluate information while recognizing that time constraints will not allow an exhaustive search for conclusive answers. Regardless of the approach, commanders will have an idea of what they wish the end state to look like and develop an effective plan. Commanders must develop a clear picture of what they require to achieve a satisfactory end state to provide a focal point for directing efforts to attain it. For tactical purposes, defining the future involves two steps: identifying the event horizon and reviewing scenarios to eliminate the most unlikely possibilities. The event horizon describes that portion of the future in which administrators can reasonably anticipate the consequences of their actions. This represents that part of the future where managers can most likely succeed in shaping a desirable outcome. Reviewing possible scenarios includes an outline of a set of expected events. The best-case scenario defines the absolute upper limit, if everything goes well. Catastrophes create major problems for public safety officials. To help them handle these incidents, managers can use a method that allows them to envision a desirable outcome, or end state, and implement strategies to achieve a favorable resolution. 6 endnotes