Macro-Economic Determinants of Penal Policy: Estimating the Unemployment and Inflation Influences on Imprisonment Rate Changes in the United States, 1948-1985

• NCJ Number: 133648
• Journal: Crime, Law, and Social Change Volume: 16 Issue: 2 Dated: (September 1991) Pages: 177-198
• Author(s): G T Lessan
• Date Published: 1991
• Length: 22 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Using annual time series data for the period 1948-1985, this study examines the extent to which changes in imprisonment rates reflect governmental attempts to offset the threat of unemployment and inflation and the fiscal limitations imposed by State expenditures on placative controls. The study tests the conflict theory which holds that systemic economic distress generates problem populations which require control via palliative and coercive means.

Abstract

The results support the conflict theory. Inflation rates and annual fluctuations in black and white male unemployment rates exert an independent positive effect upon imprisonment-rate changes when controlling for variations in violent crime rates, prison capacity, and age structure. The lack of evidence regarding trade-offs between the State's placative and coercive policies may be explained by the possible mediating effect of welfare on crime, the effect of welfare on imprisonment via other forms of coercive control, and/or the relative autonomy of social control institutions. 2 tables and 95 notes