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Inexact Analysis of Risk

NCJ Number
79519
Journal
Computer Security Journal Volume: 1 Issue: 1 Dated: (Spring 1981) Pages: 61-72
Author(s)
L J Hoffman; L A Neitzel
Date Published
1981
Length
12 pages
Annotation
An alternative approach presented here discusses risks in linguistic rather than numerical terms. An underlying calculus (which may, but need not, be based on the theory of fuzzy sets) can be used to calculate risks of subsystems. The relative change of component failure, the severity of loss caused by such a failure, and the reliability of these estimates are each specified in linguistic terms. This paper suggests algorithms to combine these estimates and produce risk indicators. An example is given.
Abstract
Risk analysis often involves situations where little data are known on which to base estimates and where variances may be hard to find. Nevertheless, risk analysis has traditionally used numerical estimates and probability theory. (Publisher abstract)

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