NCJ Number
51469
Date Published
1976
Length
50 pages
Annotation
USING MEASURABLE FACTORS, A MATHEMATICAL MODEL IS DEVELOPED TO SHOW THE EFFECT OF IMPRISONMENT AS INCAPACITATION ON CRIMES WITH A HIGH RECIDIVISM RATE.
Abstract
NOTING THAT CRIME IS INCREASING WHILE THE PRISON POPULATION AND THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF A PRISON STAY IS DECREASING, THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL DEVELOPED CLAIMS TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF MORE AND LONGER IMPRISONMENT ON THE CRIME RATE. THE BASIC MODEL USED IN ESTIMATING THE INCAPACITATION EFFECTS OF PRISONS WAS DESIGNED BY AVI IZCHAK AND SHINNAR (1973) AND SHINNAR AND SHINNAR (1975). THE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCUSSED BY OTHER INVESTIGATORS (BELKIN 1972). THE FACTORS USED IN THE EQUATION ARE DEFINED AND THE EQUATION PRESENTED. RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATES, EVALUATION OF PRESENT DATA, INDICATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH, PREDICTIONS OF THE MODEL, AND INDICATIONS FOR POLICY ARE THE PRINCIPAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED. THE MODEL INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF RECIDIVIST CRIME WOULD REQUIRE THE FOLLOWING: HAVING COMMITTED A CRIME, (1) A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ARREST, AND HAVING BEEN ARRESTED, A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION; (2) A PRISON SENTENCE OF AT LEAST 3 YEARS (PREFERABLY 5 FOR SECOND TIMERS) FOR CRIMES LIKE ROBBERY AND BURGLARY; (3) A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ARREST, HAVING COMMITTED A CRIME, IN THE INNER CITIES AND BETTER SUPERVISION OF RECIDIVISTS; (4) A REDUCTION OF TIME BETWEEN ARREST AND COMMITMENT; AND (5) ADDITIONAL PRISON SPACE TO ACCOMMODATE INCREASES IN ARREST, CONVICTION, AND SENTENCES. WHILE IT IS BELIEVED THAT A REDUCTION IN RECIDIVIST CRIME CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED THROUGH ATTENTION TO THE FACTORS IN THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL, IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT OTHER CONSIDERATIONS (COST, REHABILITATION EMPHASES, AND MORAL VALUES) ALSO AFFECT THE POLICY PURSUED. DATA USED IN THE MODEL ARE PROVIDED IN THE APPENDIX. REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED.