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Impact of Uncertainty on Non-Medical Professionals' Estimates of Sexual Abuse Probability

NCJ Number
170809
Journal
Journal of Child Sexual Abuse Volume: 6 Issue: 3 Dated: (1997) Pages: 49-64
Author(s)
C A Fargason Jr; M C Peralta-Carcelen; K E Fountain; M I Amaya; R Centor
Date Published
1997
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This study assesses how an educational intervention describing uncertainty in child sexual abuse assessments affects estimates of sexual abuse probability by non-physician child abuse professionals.
Abstract
The study evaluates whether child abuse professionals (CAP) incorporate medical information into abuse estimates in concordance with Bayes' Theorem. Eighty-nine CAP estimated the abuse probability for a hypothetical preadolescent female: (1) randomly selected; (2) disclosing abuse; (3) with physical evidence of abuse; and (4) disclosing abuse but with a normal physical examination. The non-medical professionals varied considerably in their estimates of the baseline probability of abuse. The respondents managed the uncertainty inherent in the physical examination for sexual abuse in a Bayesian manner, although they discounted the value of medical information more than was warranted according to Bayes' Theorem. Results suggest that decisionmaking by non-medical CAP might be improved if they could be taught a reasonable, consistent estimate of the baseline probability of abuse and a decisionmaking strategy for adjusting this estimate based on new information. Tables, bibliography