Imitation by Terrorists - Quantitative Approaches to the Study of Diffusion Patterns in Transnational Terrorism (From Behavioral and Quantitative Perspectives on Terrorism, P 175-228, 1981, Yonah Alexander and John M Gleason, eds. - See NCJ-84379)

• NCJ Number: 84383
• Author(s): E Heyman; E Mickolus
• Date Published: 1981
• Length: 54 pages
• Sale Source: Pergamon Press, Inc
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Originally presented to the Joint National Meeting of the Operations Research Society of America and the Institute for Management Sciences, New York City, May 1-3, 1978.

Annotation

An application of the concept of spatial diffusion to an analysis of terrorism suggests that terrorism diffuses throughout the international system by imitation, direct interpersonal contact, and the movement of individual terrorists to new locations.

Abstract

Spatial diffusion refers to the spread of a particular phenomenon or class of phenomena within a given environment over time. In applying the concept of spatial diffusion to terrorism, data were obtained on the spread of transnational terrorism within the international system from January 1, 1968, to December 31, 1977. Adjacency maps were used to illustrate the spatial distribution of transnational terrorist incidents, and a new application of Markov chains was used to determine the stability of the international system and find the equilibrium states of terrorist activity within certain geopolitical regions of the world. Markov chains show the probable movement of a process between states. The chains consist of a set of undefined states and of a set of real numbers called transnational probabilities. The spread of terrorism throughout the international system is observable. Four hypotheses can be isolated to account for the diffusion of transnational terrorism: (1) spontaneous generation, which posits no connection between the various incidents or location of terrorist incidents; (2) cooperation between groups, which focuses on the links between the various terrorist groups and cells within countries and throughout the world; (3) actual transport, which involves the movement of a terrorist group from one country to another; and (4) influence and imitation, which involves groups patterning their activities after incidents they see, read, or hear about. The use of the Markov chains and adjacency maps are graphically portrayed. Seven notes are provided.