NCJ Number
103351
Date Published
Unknown
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This theoretical essay defines a class of 'intolerable crimes' for which clinicians can attempt predictive judgments about future dangerous behavior so as to prevent harm to potential victims. It outlines information sources for such predictions and hypothesizes predictors grouped according to their predictive weights.
Abstract
Serious crimes that are intolerable because they are perceived to be predictable are those committed by persons who had previously come to clinical, judicial, or correctional attention and who were known to have made threats or to have evidenced behavior widely viewed as dangerous. A number of such intolerable crimes are best reduced through environmental security measures and crime prevention measures other than clinical prediction. The types of 'intolerable' crimes best prevented by clinical prediction include sadistic sexual assaults and murders, serial murders, bombings, arson and intrafamilial violence. These are the offenses that are most predictable because they are repetitive. Information sources for assessing the probability of future criminality include multiple interviews with the subject; interviews with the subject's social contacts, victims of the subject's current and past offenses, witnesses to the offenses, and the arresting officers; and criminal, correctional, hospital, military, employment, and school records. The weighted predictor variables listed are derived from the author's unsystematic observation, familiarity with the clinical and research literature, experience in several empirical studies of offenders, and familiarity with national crime statistics. The predictors are listed in three categories according to weight. 16 notes and 14 references.