NCJ Number
80597
Date Published
1981
Length
48 pages
Annotation
This article documents and interprets historical trends in violent crime, with emphasis on trends in homicide and assault, and occasional reference to robbery.
Abstract
Recent historical scholarship suggests that the post-1960 increase in violent crime in most Western societies was preceded by a much longer period of decline. In Britain, the incidence of homicide has fallen by a factor of at least 10 to 1 since the 13th century, and the recent tripling of the rate is small by comparison. Evidence of long-term trends in the United States is obscured by the occurrence of three great surges of violent crime which began around 1850, 1900, and 1960. The last two upsurges are largely attributable to sharply rising homicide rates among blacks. A number of other Western societies show 19th century declines in violent crime. The long-term declining trend evidently is a manifestation of cultural change in Western society, especially the growing sensitization to violence and the development of increased internal and external controls on aggressive behavior. Empirical studies of the correlates of violent crime point to several general factors which help account for the historically temporary deviations from the downward trend in interpersonal violence: warfare, which apparently tends to legitimate individual violence; the stresses of the initial phases of rapid urbanization and industrialization; economic prosperity and decline; and changes in the demographic structure. Tabular and graphic data are provided, along with footnotes and about 85 reference listings. (Author abstract modified)