NCJ Number
85373
Date Published
1981
Length
18 pages
Annotation
Starting from the general form of the geometric lag structure, the presentation focuses on the partial adjustment specification (Nerlove, 1958), which is particularly useful in modeling decisionmaking processes, and this is applied to determining if and to what extent increased police spending has been a response to crime-rate trends.
Abstract
This review indicates a need for more time series investigations to document the impact of crime trends on police expenditures. Previous analyses have used unrealistic singular lag structure. A singular lag structure unreasonably asserts that the crime rate at only one time in the past influences the current level of spending for police protection. Because it is more plausible to expect that budgetary decisions are made on the basis of long-term trends, a multiple-lag structure seems more reasonable. In contrast to some evidence in the literature, it appears from the partial adjustment model developed here that shifts in the crime rate impact the level of spending for police protection, subject to certain constraints on available revenue. Moreover, as reflected in the mean and median lags (3.03 and 2.02 years respectively) for the severity-of-crime equation, this budgetary response is not immediate but gradual. Conversations with city budget officers indicate that crime statistics are not seriously reviewed when police expenditures are determined; however, although the direct effect of crime rates on police expenditure is small, pressure on budget makers comes from the public's demand for greater police protection in response to rising crime trends. Tabular data and 27 references are provided.