GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR BUILDING DYNAMIC MACRO SOCIAL INDICATOR MODELS - INCLUDING AN ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN CRIME RATES AND POLICE EXPENDITURES

• NCJ Number: 54803
• Author(s): K C LAND; M FELSON
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 71 pages
• Grant Number(s): 5075-09096
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; Russell Sage Foundation; National Science Foundation
• Corporate Author: University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: WORKING PAPERS IN APPLIED SOCIAL STATISTICS REVISION OF A PAPER PRESENTED AT THE 70TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION, SAN FRANCISCO (CA), AUGUST 25-29, 1975

Annotation

TIME SERIES ON SOCIAL INDICATORS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERN METHODS OF DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTING AND DYNAMIC STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING CAN BE USED TO ANALYZE AND FORECAST SOCIAL TRENDS.

Abstract

THIS PAPER DESCRIBES THE FOLLOWING: (1) AN OPPORTUNITY STRUCTURES THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE FOR GENERATING SPECIFICATIONS OF DYNAMIC MACROSOCIAL INDICATOR MODELS AND FOR BRINGING MANY DIVERSE SOCIOLOGICAL THEORIES TO BEAR ON THESE SPECIFICATIONS; (2) A DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK FOR MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY AMONG THE EQUATIONS OF SUCH MODELS AND FOR MAKING CLEAR THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THOSE SOCIAL INDICATORS CORRESPONDING TO STOCKS AND THOSE CORRESPONDING TO FLOWS; AND (3) A STRUCTURAL EQUATION STRATEGY FOR BUILDING MACROSOCIAL INDICATOR MODELS. TO ILLUSTRATE THE DEVELOPED PARADIGM, ANALYSES ARE PRESENTED OF THREE EQUATIONS DETERMINING CHANGES IN THE NATIONAL REPORTED PROPERTY CRIME RATE, THE REPORTED VIOLENT CRIME RATE, AND THE RATE OF PUBLIC POLICE EXPENDITURES. THE EQUATIONS FIT ANNUAL 1947-1972 TIME-SERIES DATA WELL, YIELD THEORETICALLY MEANINGFUL COEFFICIENTS, AND LACK DEMONSTRABLE AUTOCORRELATION OF DISTURBANCES. MOREOVER, THE CONDITIONAL FORECASTS OF THE 1973 VALUES OF THE REPORTED CRIME RATES FALL WELL WITHIN BOUNDS SET BY THE STANDARD ERRORS OF THE EQUATIONS. THE APPENDIXES SHOW HOW TO CONSTRUCT A DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNT AND LIST SOURCES FOR TIME-SERIES DATA FOR THE UNITED STATES FOR 1947-1974. TABULAR AND GRAPHIC DATA, FOOTNOTES, AND REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (RCB)