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GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR BUILDING DYNAMIC MACRO SOCIAL INDICATOR MODELS - INCLUDING AN ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN CRIME RATES AND POLICE EXPENDITURES

NCJ Number
54803
Author(s)
K C Land; M Felson
Date Published
1976
Length
71 pages
Annotation
TIME SERIES ON SOCIAL INDICATORS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERN METHODS OF DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTING AND DYNAMIC STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING CAN BE USED TO ANALYZE AND FORECAST SOCIAL TRENDS.
Abstract
THIS PAPER DESCRIBES THE FOLLOWING: (1) AN OPPORTUNITY STRUCTURES THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE FOR GENERATING SPECIFICATIONS OF DYNAMIC MACROSOCIAL INDICATOR MODELS AND FOR BRINGING MANY DIVERSE SOCIOLOGICAL THEORIES TO BEAR ON THESE SPECIFICATIONS; (2) A DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK FOR MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY AMONG THE EQUATIONS OF SUCH MODELS AND FOR MAKING CLEAR THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN THOSE SOCIAL INDICATORS CORRESPONDING TO STOCKS AND THOSE CORRESPONDING TO FLOWS; AND (3) A STRUCTURAL EQUATION STRATEGY FOR BUILDING MACROSOCIAL INDICATOR MODELS. TO ILLUSTRATE THE DEVELOPED PARADIGM, ANALYSES ARE PRESENTED OF THREE EQUATIONS DETERMINING CHANGES IN THE NATIONAL REPORTED PROPERTY CRIME RATE, THE REPORTED VIOLENT CRIME RATE, AND THE RATE OF PUBLIC POLICE EXPENDITURES. THE EQUATIONS FIT ANNUAL 1947-1972 TIME-SERIES DATA WELL, YIELD THEORETICALLY MEANINGFUL COEFFICIENTS, AND LACK DEMONSTRABLE AUTOCORRELATION OF DISTURBANCES. MOREOVER, THE CONDITIONAL FORECASTS OF THE 1973 VALUES OF THE REPORTED CRIME RATES FALL WELL WITHIN BOUNDS SET BY THE STANDARD ERRORS OF THE EQUATIONS. THE APPENDIXES SHOW HOW TO CONSTRUCT A DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNT AND LIST SOURCES FOR TIME-SERIES DATA FOR THE UNITED STATES FOR 1947-1974. TABULAR AND GRAPHIC DATA, FOOTNOTES, AND REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (RCB)

Grant Number(s)
5075-09096
Sponsoring Agency
US Dept of Justice
Address

Washington, DC 20531, United States

Russell Sage Foundation
Address

112 East 64th Street, New York, NY 10065, United States

National Science Foundation
Address

4201 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22230, United States

Corporate Author
University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign
Address

Urbana, IL 61801, United States

Publication Format
Document
Publication Type
Statistics
Language
English
Country
United States of America
Note
WORKING PAPERS IN APPLIED SOCIAL STATISTICS REVISION OF A PAPER PRESENTED AT THE 70TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION, SAN FRANCISCO (CA), AUGUST 25-29, 1975