NCJ Number
52380
Date Published
1978
Length
29 pages
Annotation
REASONS FOR MEASURING DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL ARE CITED, PROBLEMS IN OBTAINING SUCH MEASURES ARE DISCUSSED, AND REPRESENTATIVE STUDIES OF DELINQUENCY AND RECIDIVISM PREDICTION ARE CONSIDERED.
Abstract
AN IDEAL MEASURE OF DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL WOULD BE USEFUL IN LOCATING PREDELINQUENTS FOR PREVENTIVE TREATMENT, IN IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT ALTERNATIVES FOR REHABILITATING OFFENDERS, IN DETERMINING WHO SHOULD RECEIVE PAROLE AND PRESCRIBING THE TYPE OF SUPERVISION NEEDED, AND IN PROVIDING AN IMMEDIATE MEASURE OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF A REHABILITATION OR PREVENTION PROGRAM. THUS FAR, PREDICTION RESEARCH HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY PROBLEMS OF RELIABILITY, VALIDITY, BASE RATE DETERMINATION, AND SELECTION RATIO--ALL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPING A SATISFACTORY PSYCHOLOGICAL INSTRUMENT FOR PREDICTING DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR. PERSONALITY QUESTIONNAIRES (E.G., THE MINNESOTA MULTIPHASIC PERSONALITY INVENTORY) AND OTHER PREDICTIVE DEVICES HAVE BEEN USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR AMONG CHILDREN AND TEENAGERS. IF DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL EXISTS IN CHILDREN, QUESTIONNAIRE SCALES ARE NOT SATISFACTORY MEASURES OF IT, ALTHOUGH THE SCALES CAN DELINEATE ATTITUDES THAT DISTINGUISH OFFENDERS FROM ORDINARY PERSONS AND MIGHT BE USEFUL IN IMPROVING REHABILITATION PROCEDURES OR AS TEMPORARY ESTIMATES OF THE IMPACT OF TREATMENT. NOMINATING METHODS--ASSESSMENTS OF DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL BY TEACHERS, PEERS, OR SOME OTHER OBSERVER--HAVE A TENDENCY TOWARD OVERPREDICTION, AND STEPS TO ELIMINATE OVERPREDICTION MIGHT AFFECT THE VALIDITY OF SUCH METHODS. RESEARCHERS HAVE USED EXPERIENCE TABLES, PERSONALITY QUESTIONNAIRES, AND OTHER DEVICES TO PREDICT RECIDIVISM. THE SUCCESS OF VARIOUS INVESTIGATORS IN PREDICTING PAROLE OUTCOME AT BETTER THAN CHANCE LEVEL SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL EXISTS AND AFFECTS IMPORTANT BEHAVIORS. THE DEGREE OF INFLUENCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LARGE, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OPPORTUNISTIC NATURE OF MOST RECIDIVISM STUDIES MAY HAVE HIDDEN TRUE IMPACT. IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO AGGREGATE INFORMATION ABOUT DIFFERENT TYPES OF OFFENDERS, INCLUDING OFFENDERS WHO HAVE BEEN CONVICTED BUT NOT YET SENTENCED, IN ORDER TO REVEAL THE TRUE STATUS OF DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THIS SUGGESTION FLIES IN THE FACE OF ANOTHER REMEDY PROPOSED FOR THE PREDICTION PROBLEM--DISAGGREGATION, INVOLVING THE CONSTRUCTION OF DIFFERENTIAL PREDICTORS FOR A VARIETY OF CRIMINAL TYPES. PREDICTING POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT CRIME HAS PROVED EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN OTHER FORMS OF PREDICTION, PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE LOW BASE RATE (RELATIVE FREQUENCY IN THE POPULATION) OF CRIMINAL VIOLENCE. IT MAY BE THAT THE CASE STUDY, OR CLINICAL PREDICTION, IS THE BEST STRATEGY FOR OBTAINING VALID ESTIMATES OF DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL. IT HAS YET TO BE SHOWN WHETHER DELINQUENCY POTENTIAL IS A REAL FUNCTION OF PERSONALITY. ONE OBSTACLE TO PROGRESS IN PREDICTION RESEARCH HAS BEEN THE FAILURE OF SOCIAL SCIENTISTS TO BUILD ON THE WORK OF EARLIER RESEARCHERS. A LIST OF REFERENCES IS INCLUDED. (LKM)