NCJ Number
190885
Date Published
2000
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This chapter advocates striking a balance between what is considered the likelihood of a future nuclear biological, and chemical (NBC) terrorist attack and what is a reasonable level of investment in countermeasures.
Abstract
Terrorism is likely to remain a threat to many states for the foreseeable future because the issues that generate terrorism are unlikely to be resolved. There is no indication that the trend in terrorist incidents towards fewer attacks involving higher numbers of casualties will be reversed, although the world could witness at least temporary reversals in this trend. It would be wrong to categorically state that a trend of increasing numbers of NBC attacks, particularly from biological weapons, will emerge, but there is no reason to suggest that it will not. The development of NBC weapons is achievable by increasing numbers of terrorist groups as they reach a certain level of technical sophistication. The costs of providing countermeasures will be disproportionate to the likely number of terrorist incidents involving weapons of mass destruction. But the potentially high consequences of even a single attack justify the investment of resources into combating the threat. States are going to have to invest considerably more resources than they have thus far. Many of the costs can be shared with other programs and resources can be focused on the most effective measures. Ultimately it will be impossible for governments to spend their way out of the problem, and it must accept a degree of vulnerability while keeping spending at a reasonable level. 12 notes