NCJ Number
101927
Date Published
1985
Length
15 pages
Annotation
This examination of the future course of international terrorism discusses the likelihood of its continuation and escalation, tactics, targets, weaponry, and counterterrorist tactics.
Abstract
International terrorism will continue because of the institutionalization of terrorism as a useful state weapon, its utility in focusing attention on a dispute, and its establishment as a model for small groups opposed to particular governments. The volume of terrorist incidents will continue to increase. Types of terrorist targets will remain essentially the same. Attacks on high-technology targets should be only occasional events. Nuclear terrorism is neither imminent nor inevitable, since it does not serve the long-term goals of most terrorist groups; however, circumstances and fanatical ideologies may erode existing constraints. If chemical warfare becomes common, particularly in the Middle East, terrorists may use such weapons. States will continue to exploit terrorism, producing the potential for a protracted worldwide guerrilla war. The institutionalization and escalation of terrorism will force governments and private corporations to divert more resources toward countering it.