NCJ Number
87914
Date Published
1982
Length
54 pages
Annotation
Produced primarily by means of multiple regression and time series analysis, this document forecasts population estimates for various subgroups of the Oregon Corrections Division.
Abstract
The subgroups analyzed include new commitments to institutions, felony probation receptions, felony and misdemeanant probation receptions, and parole subgroups, as well as institutions releases. The forecasting procedures indicate that if the monthly average continues through the last 5 months of 1982, the new institutional commitments will surpass the 1981 total (1,604) by about 280, as well as surpassing the previous high of 1,785 in 1979. The expected total of felony probation receptions for 1982 was estimated at 4,166. The procedures reported here are based on monthly data, obtained from regional and county units of corrections that contribute the State's data base of crime and arrest information, court filings, population estimates and characteristics, and employment statistics. It is emphasized that this cooperative, systematized data reporting continue so that Oregon's forecasting procedures can be refined in the future. Tabular data and about 30 references are given. Appendixes include additional documentation.