NCJ Number
196972
Date Published
July 2002
Length
20 pages
Annotation
This document describes how juvenile detention and corrections space needs are assessed in the State of Texas.
Abstract
In Texas, there are between 80,000 and 100,000 delinquency referrals to the juvenile justice system annually. There has been a dramatic expansion of its juvenile correctional population recently, as well as an increase in the funds needed for incarcerating these youths. Legislative and agency changes, such as a more punishment-oriented approach, appear to have increased the average length of stay of incarcerated youths. The Texas Criminal Justice Policy Council (TCJPC) is responsible for generating juvenile correctional forecasts. Projections are generated from a disaggregated flow model that identifies rates of flow between stages of the juvenile justice system for different subpopulations. Effective forecasts also require the involvement of diverse stakeholders to develop the assumptions on which forecasts are based. The credibility of TCJPC’s projections stems from the fact that it operates as an autonomous agency, reporting directly to the governor but operating independently of that and other agencies. The Texas Youth Commission uses the projections to anticipate future capacity and fluctuations in demand for bed space throughout the year. Forecasts are empirically based, but they are also informed by a multidimensional process for generating continuously updated projections of future correctional populations. The credibility of projections depends on a wide range of factors. These include flexible forecasting models; accurate and easily accessible data; monitoring and revision of trends and assumptions; and institutionalizing the projections process. The use of these factors can contribute to the development of credible projections and to more effective policies. 9 figures, 20 references