NCJ Number
11806
Date Published
1971
Length
202 pages
Annotation
STUDY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CRIME-ESTIMATION MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CRIME-CONTROL PROGRAMS.
Abstract
THE CRIME-CORRELATED AREA MODEL IS BASED UPON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE EXIST A NUMBER OF CRIME-RELATED INFLUENCES WHICH OPERATE UPON A CITY AS A WHOLE. DUE TO THE OPERATION OF THESE INFLUENCES, IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE LEVELS OF CRIME IN VARIOUS AREAS OF A CITY MIGHT FLUCTUATE IN A SIMILAR MANNER. THUS, IT IS ARGUED THAT THE LEVELS OF CRIME BETWEEN TWO AREAS MIGHT BE HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH ONE ANOTHER. IF THE DEGREE OF ASSOCIATION IS HIGH ENOUGH, THE BELIEF IS THAT THE LEVEL OF CRIME WITHIN ONE AREA MIGHT BE ESTIMATED AS A FUNCTION OF THE LEVEL WITHIN ANOTHER AREA. THE STUDY ALSO FOCUSES UPON THREE MONTHS DURING 1970 IN WHICH INTENSIVE POLICE PATROL ACTIVITIES WERE CONDUCTED WITHIN CERTAIN SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON, D.C. AN ANALYSIS WAS MADE IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE IMPACT OF THE INCREASE IN MANPOWER UPON CRIME. THE APPENDIX PRESENTS SOME CONSIDERATION IN ATTEMPTING TO MATHEMATICALLY DESCRIBE THE PHENOMENON OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT OF CRIME. HYPOTHETICAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPED AND SERVE AS ILLUSTRATIONS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)