NCJ Number
76493
Date Published
1979
Length
23 pages
Annotation
Risk assessment regarding the existence and nature of the future terrorist threat is discussed.
Abstract
The definition of terrorism, its aims and objectives, and the targets, methods, and timing of terrorism are considered, in order to lay the groundwork for risk assessment. The proposed definition of terrorism is 'a purposeful human activity primarily directed toward creation of a general climate of fear designed to influence, in ways desired by the protagonists, other human beings and, through them, some course of events.' The process of risk assessment must take into account the clandestine nature of terrorism, the human limitations of terrorists, and the difference in potentiality of human beings acting in combination as compared with those acting alone. In addition, risk assessment should include such factors as the vulnerability, visibility, and value of prospective targets and the capability of terrorists to harm some particular target. Overall, the risk assessment indicates that terrorism in its modern guise will continue into the future. It can only be expected to get worse as newer and better ways of killing and destroying become available. Lacking any hope that the existence and viciousness of terrorism will diminish in the future, societies have no alternative but to mount countermeasures and preventive tactics for terrorism. Intelligence systems on terrorism must be accurate and complete and retrieval must be speedy and comprehensive. Constant data analysis must be used, so as to catch terrorism in its planning stages and prevent terrorists from obtaining or using the weapons of destruction offered by modern technology. Notes are provided.