NCJ Number
19775
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 2 Issue: 4 Dated: (WINTER 1974) Pages: 287-303
Date Published
1975
Length
17 pages
Annotation
THIS VALIDATION STUDY INVESTIGATED THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE VERA INSTITUTE'S PRETRIAL RELEASE SCALE AND EXAMINED NUMEROUS DEFENDANT BACKGROUND FACTORS IN AN ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE PREDICTION GUIDES FOR DECISION MAKERS.
Abstract
THE SUBJECTS IN THE STUDY WERE 529 DEFENDANTS, ARRESTED IN CENTRAL LOS ANGELES DURING THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 1, 1969 TO JULY 31, 1970. OF THESE SUBJECTS, 201 OBTAINED RELEASE ON THEIR OWN RECOGNIZANCE (THE O.R. GROUP) AND 328 WERE NOT ELIGIBLE FOR O.R. BUT WERE RELEASED UNDER SPECIAL ARRANGEMENTS WITH THE COURTS. THIS SECOND GROUP WAS DESIGNATED THE EXPERIMENTAL RELEASE GROUP (E.R.). AN ANALYSIS OF FAILURE TO RETURN RATES AND PRETRIAL REARREST RATES WAS MADE FOR BOTH GROUPS. IT WAS FOUND THAT WHEN VOLUNTARY RETURNS WERE INCLUDED IN THE SUCCESS CATEGORIES, OVER 85 PERCENT OF THE O.R. SAMPLE AND OVER 73 PERCENT OF THE E.R. SAMPLE WERE SUCCESSFUL. ALSO, IT WAS FOUND THAT OVER 74 PERCENT OF THE O.R. SAMPLE WERE NOT REARRESTED, WHILE 53 PERCENT OF THE E.R. SAMPLE WERE NOT.THE ANALYSIS OF THE VERA INSTITUTE'S SCALE APPLIED TO THESE SAMPLES INDICATED THAT IT HAS A RELATIVELY LOW PREDICTIVE POWER. THE RESULTS ACHIEVED DURING THE ATTEMPT AT CONSTRUCTION OF AN IMPROVED PREDICTION GUIDE WERE FOUND TO BE NO MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN METHODS ALREADY IN USE.