Emerging Issues Analysis of the Judiciary, State of Hawaii

• NCJ Number: 77205
• Author(s): J A Dator
• Date Published: 1980
• Length: 25 pages
• Corporate Author: Hawaii Judiciary
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Transcript of remarks presented on March 28-30, 1980 at the Hawaii Judiciary's Planning Conference for line administrators.

Annotation

This lecture, delivered during the planning conference for the Judiciary's line administrators in Hawaii, explains the concept of futures research and its application to the judicial planning process.

Abstract

The concept of futures research has grown out of the assumption that we live in a dynamic society in which the traditional planning based on the past experience is inadequate. It is, therefore, necessary to develop decisionmaking modes that are based upon an alternative futures perspective. Trend analysis, in which one phenomenon is plotted over time, looked at in the past and present, and projected into the future, is one aspect of futures research. Data-storing equipment is making it more possible than ever. However, the essential part of the research is based on emerging-issue analysis, in which new ideas are identified as early in their growth cycle as possible. There is then more time to analyze their impact and possibly influence their growth. This is not possible in trend analysis which looks at things in the broad rapid growth midsection. The futures portion of the plan thus seeks to devise a process which will allow us to assess the multitude of things which might happen; to pick out the few that are most likely to happen or which if they do will have the biggest impact; and to begin to devise strategies for coping with these problems or diverting them. Examples of trend analysis programs and of the applications of futures research and emerging issues analysis to the judiciary are included.