EFFECTIVENESS OF STATE AND LOCAL REGULATION OF HANDGUNS A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

• NCJ Number: 48118
• Journal: Duke Law Journal Volume: 1969 Dated: (1969) Pages: 647-676
• Author(s): R ROLL; M S GEISEL; R S WETTICK
• Date Published: 1969
• Length: 30 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

GUN CONTROL IS CORRELATED WITH VARIOUS DEATH AND CRIME RATES FOR STATES AND CITIES, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE INFLUENCE OF OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS PER CAPITA INCOME, EDUCATION, AND POPULATION DENSITY.

Abstract

DIFFERENCES IN DEATH AND CRIME RATES AMONG THE STATES AND CITIES STUDIED WERE OBTAINED BY COLLECTING DATA ON THE RATES OF HOMICIDE BY FIREARM, TOTAL HOMICIDE, SUICIDE BY FIREARM, TOTAL SUICIDE, AGGRAVATED ASSAULT BY FIREARM, TOTAL AGGRAVATED ASSAULT, ACCIDENTAL DEATH BY FIREARM AND ROBBERY. DATA WAS OBTAINED FOR THE 50 STATES, THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, AND THE 129 U.S. CITIES WHOSE POPULATION EXCEEDED 100,000 IN 1960. DIFFERENCES IN THE OTHER FACTORS WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR VARIATIONS IN THE DEATH AND CRIME RATES WERE OBTAINED BY COLLECTING DATA RELATING TO INCOME, EDUCATION, SEX, POLICE, RACE, AND LICENSED HUNTERS. THE VARIOUS GUN CONTROL REGULATIONS OF THE STATES AND CITIES CONSIDERED WERE CLASSIFIED INTO EIGHT MAJOR CATEGORIES. THIS PERMITTED QUANTIFICATION OF THE GUN CONTROL PROVISIONS OF STATE STATUTES AND CITY ORDINANCES BY ASSIGNING NUMERICAL WEIGHTS TO EACH OF THE EIGHT CATEGORIES. DATA ANALYSIS WAS EMPLOYED TO OBTAIN PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES OF THE EXTENT TO WHICH DIFFERENCES IN THE DEATH AND CRIME RATE ARE RELATED TO THE DIFFERENCES IN GUN CONTROL, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ACCOUNTING FOR OTHER FACTORS. THE FINDINGS INDICATE THAT GUN CONTROL LEGISLATION IS MOST EFFECTIVE IN REDUCNG THE NUMBER OF SUICIDES AND ACCIDENTS BY FIREARM, LESS EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING THE NUMBER OF HOMICIDES, AND GENERALLY INEFFECTIVE IN REDUCING THE NUMBER OF OTHER CRIMES. THE DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE IS DESCRIBED IN DETAIL, AND LIMITATIONS IN THE STUDY ARE DISCUSSED. A CRITIQUE OF THREE RELATED RESEARCH PAPERS BY ALAN S. KRUG, WHICH HAVE RECEIVED IMPORTANT CIRCULATION AND DISCREDIT THE POSITION THAT GUN CONTROL REDUCES CRIME, REVEALS THEIR DEFICIENCIES. THE APPENDIX LISTS THE WEIGHTS FOR THE GUN CONTROL INDICES AND DATA ON DEATHS AND CRIME. OTHER DATA IS INCLUDED IN THE BODY OF THE REPORT. NOTES ARE PROVIDED. (RCB)