NCJ Number
245809
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 29 Issue: 4 Dated: December 2013 Pages: 601-642
Date Published
December 2013
Length
42 pages
Annotation
This paper uses a sample of convicted offenders from Pennsylvania to estimate the effect of incarceration on post-release criminality.
Abstract
This paper uses a sample of convicted offenders from Pennsylvania to estimate the effect of incarceration on post-release criminality. To do so, the authors capitalize on a feature of the criminal justice system in Pennsylvaniathe county-level randomization of cases to judges. The authors begin by identifying five counties in which there is substantial variation across judges in the uses of incarceration, but no evidence indicating that the randomization process had failed. The estimated effect of incarceration on rearrest is based on comparison of the rearrest rates of the caseloads of judges with different proclivities for the use of incarceration. Using judge as an instrumental variable, the authors estimate a series of confidence intervals for the effect of incarceration on 1 year, 2 year, 5 year, and 10 year rearrest rates. On the whole, there is little evidence in the data that incarceration impacts rearrest. (Published Abstract)