NCJ Number
85049
Date Published
1979
Length
191 pages
Annotation
The research shows that an economic modeling approach can be an effective means of predicting and identifying criminal behavior within a single urban area.
Abstract
The research involved four distinct states: specification, estimation, testing, and forecasting. Historical relations between socioeconomic factors and crime levels were quantified by using a time series modeling framework that isolated relationships within a single urban area. Although data limitations were encountered, it was shown that the model can successfully track the historical time path of property crime. Data tables, figures, a list of abbreviations, 43 references, and 47 footnotes are provided.