ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE INTRACITY DISPERSION OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY

• NCJ Number: 19626
• Author(s): M W SMITH; R A SCHRIMPER
• Date Published: 1974
• Length: 37 pages
• Corporate Author: Center for Naval Analyses
• Sale Source: National Technical Information Service; National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS STUDY INVESTIGATED FACTORS WHICH AFFECT THE FLOW OF CRIMES BETWEEN URBAN CENSUS TRACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROPERTY CRIMES OF BURGLARY, LARCENY, AND ROBBERY EXCLUSIVE OF MUGGINGS.

Abstract

A 'CRIME FLOW' IS DEFINED AS A CRIME IN ONE CENSUS TRACT BEING COMMITTED BY AN OFFENDER RESIDING IN ANOTHER TRACT. A THEORETICAL, MATHEMATICAL MODEL IS DEVELOPED TO EXPLAIN CRIME FLOWS BETWEEN AREAS OF A CITY BASED ON THE AVERAGE INCOME OF VICTIMS, THE AVERAGE INCOME OF OFFENDERS, AND AVERAGE DISTANCE BETWEEN VICTIMS AND OFFENDERS. THIS MODEL HAS TESTED IN AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE URBAN CRIME FLOWS IN RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA, UTILIZED WERE CRIMINAL CASES OF THE SUPERIOR COURT OF WAKE COUNTY (NC) FOR THE TWO-YEAR PERIOD OF 1969-70 ON WHICH A FINAL DECISION HAD BEEN RENDERED BY AUGUST 1971. ANALYSIS RESULTS INDICATED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SPATIAL DIMENSION OF PROPERTY CRIME IN TERMS OF THE HIGH PROPORTION OF CRIME (71 PER CENT) TRANSPORTED BETWEEN GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS OF THE RALEIGH REGION. DISTANCE, HOWEVER, HAD A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON CRIME FLOWS. THE INCOME OF POTENTIAL OFFENDERS, USED TO MEASURE THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF CRIME WAS NEGATIVELY RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF CRIME PRODUCED. THE INCOME OF POTENTIAL RESIDENTIAL VICTIMS OF CRIME USED TO MEASURE A POTENTIAL RETURN TO CRIME DID NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON CRIME FLOWS. THE PRESENCE OF BUSINESS AND OTHER NONRESIDENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSEQUENTLY THE RETURNS FROM THIS TYPE OF CRIME DID NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THESE FLOWS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)