Early Release Committee for Prisoners Versus Computer - Which is Preferable?

• NCJ Number: 74110
• Journal: Criminology Volume: 18 Issue: 3 Dated: (November 1980) Pages: 385-397
• Author(s): Y Hassin
• Date Published: 1980
• Length: 13 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

The findings of this Israeli comparison study point out advantages of using computers to aid the Early Release Committee (which has discretionary power to release prisoners who have served two-thirds of their sentence) in distinguishing between future recidivists and nonrecidivists.

Abstract

Information was gathered (in 1978) of 540 male prisoners who applied to the Early Release Committee in 1971 for reduction of prison sentence. Of these, 468 (86.67 percent) were released in 1971, and the release of the remaining 72 prisoners occurred during the period from 1972 to 1973, after full sentence was served. In addition, a random sample was taken of 93 prisoners who applied and were released in 1974. An examiniation of the variables for predicting recidivism and a statistical analysis were carried out regarding 468 prisoners released in 1971, and the results were applied to two other groups of prisoners. Then, in order to validate the findings, the three groups were combined (633 persons) and the criteria were applied to those released in 1971. A total of 13 sociodemographic and criminal variables were isolated. With regard to 540 applicants of 1971, the Committee was correct in predicting their recidivism in 14.11 percent of the cases, and in predicting nonrecidivism in 89.15 percent of the cases, while computer predictions were correct for 64.23 percent of the recidivists and for 69.77 percent of the nonrecidivists. Thus, the Committee tended to release many prisoners, while the recommendations of the computer were relatively restrained and suggested far fewer releases. However, although the percentage of errors of the Committee was very high regarding the releas of recidivists, the Committee was more accurate than the computer in its decisions to release nonrecidivists. Therefore, the computer should be used by the Committee, but only as an aid, and not as its main instrument. Statistical and tabular data, the computer formula, notes, and references are included.