NCJ Number
67318
Date Published
1977
Length
159 pages
Annotation
THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF PENAL SANCTIONS IS ADDRESSED; TWO CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM MODELS ARE PRESENTED TO ESTIMATE THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF INCARCERATION.
Abstract
DISCUSSION BEGINS WITH A DEFINITION OF RESTRAINT AS A FORM OF SPECIFIC DETERRENCE; AN OVERVIEW OF THE HISTORY OF THE DETERRENCE ISSUE FOLLOWS. FOLLOWING AN EXAMINATION OF A 1972 STUDY WHICH ESTABLISHED THE EXISTENCE OF A CHRONIC OFFENDER GROUP THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST SERIOUS CRIME, TWO MODELS FOR ESTIMATING RESTRAINT ARE PRESENTED. THE FIRST IS A GENERAL MODEL, ASSUMING AN EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF OFFENSES BY AGE; THE SECOND IS AGE SPECIFIC AND COMPUTES RESTRAINT VALUES FOR AGES 14 THROUGH 30. THE BASIS FOR THE MODEL IS IN THE EARLIER ATTEMPTS OF AVI-ITZHAK AND SHINNAR (1973) AND SHINNAR AND SHINNAR (1975). USING LONGITUDINAL DATA FOR A COHORT OF OFFENDERS, RESERACHERS COMPUTE INDIVIDUAL ESTIMATES FOR BOTH MODELS. FINDINGS SHOW THAT FOR EACH CHRONIC OFFENDER INCARCERATED FOR A YEAR, ABOUT 2.5 INDEX OFFENSES WILL BE PREVENTED; INCARCERATION OF SUCH AN OFFENDER FOR 2 YEARS WILL PREVENT 5 INDEX OFFENSES. THE GENERAL MODEL INDICATES THIS OFFENDER CATEGORY IS A RATIONAL FOCUS FOR ANY POLICY OF RESTRAINT BY INCARCERATION. THE AGE SPECIFIC MODEL REVEALS THAT THE ANNUAL NUMBER OF INDEX OFFENSES COMMITTED IS HIGHEST IN THE JUVENILE YEARS; THESE NUMBERS ARE LOWER AND RELATIVELY STABLE IN THE ADULT YEARS TO AGE 30. RESEARCHERS ESTIMATE THAT THE INCARCERATION OF OFFENDERS IN THE COHORT PREVENTED 26,500 INDEX OFFENSES BETWEEN THE AGES 14 AND 29. FURTHERMORE, THE INCARCERATION OF OFFENDERS IN PHILADELPHIA IN 1974 WAS TO PREVENT 3,194 INDEX OFFENSES AND TO KEEP THE CITY'S INDEX OFFENSE RATE 5.3 PERCENT LOWER THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN IF NO OFFENDERS HAD BEEN INCARCERATED. FOOTNOTES, GRAPHS, AND TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED; A SUBJECT INDEX AND APPROXIMATELY 80 REFERENCES ARE APPENDED.