NCJ Number
132305
Journal
Journal of Security Administration Volume: 13 Issue: 1-2 Dated: (December 1990) Pages: 83-102
Date Published
1990
Length
20 pages
Annotation
Despite the 1978 National Research Council report, most deterrence research today is plagued with the same methodological problems identified in the report. This may make the results unreliable from a policymaking perspective.
Abstract
The sanctions most studied in macro level research which uses aggregate data are arrest, prison commitment, and police presence. The NRC report, which reviewed time series and cross section regression analyses, objected to the standard conclusions that arrest and imprisonment rates had deterrent effects on three grounds. These include the spurious relationships caused by ratio variable, the confounding of deterrence and incapacitation effects, and causal direction problems. Seventeen studies published in the 1980's dealing with the relationship between crimes and arrests, imprisonment, or police presence have had to deal with the issue of simultaneity or likely reciprocal causation problems. The author maintains that most researchers have either used lagged independent variables, attempts to explain away simultaneity, simultaneous equations, or the Granger test. 3 notes, 1 figure, and 25 references