NCJ Number
44316
Journal
Social Forces Volume: 56 Issue: 2 Dated: SPECIAL ISSUE (DECEMBER 1977) Pages: 424-447
Date Published
1977
Length
24 pages
Annotation
THREE THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS OF THE OBSERVED NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND ARREST OR IMPRISONMENT RATES ARE EVALUATED.
Abstract
DETERRENCE THEORY SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL CRIMINAL WEIGH THE RELATIVE REWARDS AND COSTS OF THE CRIMINAL ACT UNDER CONSIDERATION, THUS ACCOUNTING FOR THE NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT AND INCIDENCE OF CRIME. ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF THAT RELATIONSHIP ARE FOUND IN THE OVERLOAD THEORY, WHICH HOLDS THAT ENFORCEMENT SYSTEMS BECOME STRAINED BEYOND THEIR CAPACITY UNDER CONDITIONS OF HIGH CRIME RATES, AND IN THE INCAPACITATION THEORY, WHICH ATTRIBUTES REDUCTIONS IN CRIME TO THE REMOVAL OF MULTIPLE OFFENDERS. IT IS ARGUED THAT DETERRENCE, OVERLOAD, AND INCAPACITATION THEORIES EACH PREDICT A DIFFERENT PATTERN OF VARIATION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT AND CRIME RATE. COMPARISON OF EXPECTED PATTERNS WITH ACTUAL PATTERNS AS DERIVED FROM DATA ON STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS AND FROM THE RESULTS OF PREVIOUS STUDIES SUGGESTS THAT DETERRENCE PREDICTIONS ARE STRONGEST. THE DATA ALSO SUPPORT THE ASSERTION THAT, BECAUSE THE DETERRENCE THEORY IS MORE APPLICABLE TO CERTAIN TYPES OF CRIMES THAN TO OTHERS, THE STRENGTH OF THE NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT AND CRIME RATE WILL VARY BY TYPE OF CRIME. THE DATA SUGGEST A STRONG DETERRENT EFFECT FOR PROPERTY CRIMES (AUTO THEFT, LARCENY, ROBBERY, BURGLARY), A MODERATE EFFECT FOR RAPE, AND LITTLE EFFECT FOR ASSAULT AND HOMICIDE. SUPPORTING DATA AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED.