DETERMINING THE IMPACT OF LEGAL POLICY CHANGES BEFORE THE CHANGES OCCUR

• NCJ Number: 36058
• Author(s): S NAGEL; M NEEF
• Date Published: 1975
• Length: 22 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: Ford Foundation
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: PAPER PRESENTED AT ANNUAL MEETING OF MIDWEST POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION, 1975

Annotation

THIS PAPER DISCUSSES THE USE OF DEDUCTIVE POLICY EVALUATION (OR PRE-IMPACT ANALYSIS) TO DEDUCE THE EFFECTS OF ADOPTING A POLICY BEFORE IT HAS BEEN ADOPTED FROM WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT RELATED POLICIES AND SITUATIONS.

Abstract

IN ITS SIMPLEST SINGLE-ANALOGY FORM, DEDUCTIVE POLICY EVALUATION INVOLVES SAYING XI POLICY OR SITUATION (WHICH HAS BEEN ADOPTED) HAS BEEN FOUND TO CAUSE Y EFFECT; X2 POLICY (WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ADOPTED) IS LIKE X1 POLICY WITH REGARD TO ALL THAT WE KNOW TO BE RELEVANT TO THE OCCURRENCE OF Y EFFECT; AND THEREFORE WE PREDICT X2 POLICY WILL ALSO CAUSE Y EFFECT IF IT IS ADOPTED. IN A SLIGHTLY MORE SOPHISTICATED DOUBLE-ANAOLOGY FORM, THE DEDUCTIVE APPROACH INVOLVES SAYING X1 POLICY HAS BEEN FOUND TO CAUSE Y1 EFFECT; X2 POLICY HAS BEEN FOUND TO CAUSE Y2 EFFECT; X3 POLICY IS IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN X1 AND X2 WITH REGARD TO ITS RELEVANT CHARACTERISTICS; AND THEREFORE WE PREDICT THAT X3 POLICY WILL CAUSE Y3 EFFECT WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN Y1 AND Y2. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)