NCJ Number
109101
Date Published
1986
Length
582 pages
Annotation
An exploratory field used the Delphi technique to elicit the opinions of experts to forecast the future of law enforcement.
Abstract
A nationwide telephone survey conducted in 1984 identified 300 experts, from whom 8 scholars and 7 law enforcement experts were chosen as representative of the Nation's law enforcement management experts. Their opinions were sought using an anonymous mail questionnaire in four cycles. In the study's first round, the experts listed the topical areas they viewed as vital to the future of law enforcement. In the following three cycles, they responded to 25 forced-choice items relating to the issues presented. The responses focused on six groups of issues: traditional crime, pervasive crime, high technology, alternative policing, professionalization, and research. The respondents reached a consensus on 17 statements. The panel believes that computer-related crime will emerge as a threat to the American economy and security by 1990. Urban unrest is expected to generate massive civil disorder by 1999. Literature review, data tables, 308 references, and appended details of results and names of participants.