DEFINING FUTURE THREATS - TERRORISTS AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION (FROM STUDIES IN NUCLEAR TERRORISM, 1979, BY AUGUSTUS R NORTON AND MARTIN H GREENBERG - SEE NCJ-62842)

• NCJ Number: 62846
• Author(s): M C HUTCHINSON
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 17 pages
• Corporate Author: G K Hall
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

AN ANALYSIS OF CONTEMPORARY TERRORISM FROM THE PREMISE THAT TERRORISTS ACCEPT RISKS TO ACHIEVE POLITICAL GOALS INDICATES THAT THE PROSPECT OF MASS CASUALTIES WILL NOT DETER SOME TERRORISTS FROM USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

Abstract

IF COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR POWER WERE NOT SPREADING RAPIDLY AND WIDELY, AND IF NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLES WERE NOT BEING ACQUIRED BY MANY NATIONS, THEN THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM MIGHT BE REMOTE. MANY NATIONS PERCEIVE THAT ANY NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT CONSTITUTES A LIABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPER AND THE WHOLE WORLD, BUT ENERGY PROBLEMS MAY FORCE THE DEPENDENCE ON NUCLEAR POWER. TERRORIST EXPLOITATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS A REAL THREAT AS MOTIVATIONS FOR TERRORISM INCREASE AND INTENSIFY. EVEN A TINY ORGANIZATION COULD PRESENT A CREDIBLE THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF THE GROUP HAD INDUSTRY OR GOVERNMENT CONNECTIONS. HOWEVER, NUCLEAR VIOLENCE WOULD REQUIRE THE EXTENSIVE PLANNING AND PRECISE EXECUTION USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED AND WELL-FINANCED TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS. THE PUBLICITY VALUE OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM IS FAR GREATER THAN THE VALUE OF CONVENTIONAL ATTACK; THEREFORE, TERRORISTS MAY RISK USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS OF NO GREATER POWER THAN ORDINARY BOMBS. IN ANY CASE, THE POLITICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF EVEN MINOR NUCLEAR TERRORISM WOULD BE INFINITELY GREATER THAN THE IMPACT OF CONVENTIONAL EXPLOSIVES. IT IS NAIVE TO PRESUME THAT TERRORISTS' HUMANITARIAN INSTINCTS WOULD PREVENT THEIR RESORT TO MASS DESTRUCTION. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION MAY HELP PREVENT A NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE. FOOTNOTES ARE PROVIDED. (TWK)