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DATA SET COMPARABILITY AND SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CRIME AND DELINQUENCY

NCJ Number
145934
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 21 Issue: 5 Dated: (1993) Pages: 433- 445
Author(s)
S Menard; D S Elliott
Date Published
1993
Length
13 pages
Annotation
This comparison of two self-report surveys of delinquent behavior, the National Youth Survey (NYS) and the Monitoring the Future study (MTF), shows different prevalence rates for delinquent behavior.
Abstract
The NYS is a prospective longitudinal panel study of respondents aged 11-17 in 1976 and 18-24 in 1983. The MTF combines a repeated cross-sectional design for high school seniors with a longitudinal panel design that follows a subsample of these high school seniors after they have left high school. The NYS and MTF differ in technical design and the questions they pose. This study used two methods of comparing MTF and NYS data. One method examined year-to-year changes in the prevalence of offending for NYS and MTF offenses. Another method examined trends in NYS and MTF data for 1976-80 and 1976-83, noting whether the inclusion of 1983 data affected the results. Comparison of the two data sets shows that differences between them may be due primarily to differences in sampling design, survey administration, and the wording of questions. The findings do not support the assertion that one data set is more or less valid than the other for measuring rates or trends in crime and delinquency. The NYS and MTF cannot generally be used interchangeably. Instead, the NYS and MTF should be regarded as complementary sources of information about similar but not identical forms of illegal behavior for similar but not identical populations. 3 tables and 31 references