Cyclical Changes of Homicide Rates: A Reanalysis of Brearley's 1932 Data

• NCJ Number: 222048
• Journal: Journal of Interpersonal Violence Volume: 18 Issue: 8 Dated: August 2003 Pages: 942-955
• Author(s): Danny Rock; David M. Greenberg; Joachim Hallmayer
• Date Published: August 2003
• Length: 14 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Using spectral analysis, this paper reexamined the original data from Brearley’s (1932) work analyzing temporal regularity in homicide rates across the United States.

Abstract

The reanalysis of the Brearley (1932) data using spectral analysis demonstrates that a significant seasonal dependency for homicide exists, peaks in August, and explains between 23 percent and 30 percent of the nonlinear variation in homicide deaths. The most important aspect of the results is the phase stability of the determined rhythm over time. Brearley analyzed FBI Uniform Crime Reports of 51,798 United States homicides between 1923 and 1928. Although he generally found a summer excess, the overall dispersion of the data led him to conclude that there was no consistent seasonal effect. The original data from Brearley’s analysis was reanalyzed using spectral analysis. Tables, figures, references