NCJ Number
85376
Date Published
1981
Length
25 pages
Annotation
The criminometric model developed permits quantitative analysis of criminal justice phenomena through the integrated application of criminal justice theory, empirical observation, and statistical inference.
Abstract
The model is developed through the interrelated activities of model building, estimation, evaluation, and prediction. Model building involves the development of a formal theoretical structure, expressed as a set of equations, that purports to explain criminal behavior and the societal response to this behavior as components of an interrelated system. Estimation refers to a two-step procedure in which a theoretical model is transformed into an empirical model, and the empirical model is estimated by applying certain statistical procedures to an existing set of real-world data. Evaluation consists of a test of the theoretical model, based on the results of the empirical estimation procedure. Prediction involves positing a specific change in one or more variables in the criminometric model, and then the impact of this change on the other variables in the model is determined. The simple forecasting model developed is used to explain the longitudinal pattern of the crime rate, the level of law enforcement activity, and two variables related to legal sanctions. Mathematical equations and tabular data are provided, along with 36 references. A list of data sources is appended.