NCJ Number
25210
Date Published
1966
Length
19 pages
Annotation
THIS PAPER LOOKS AT THE PROBLEMS WHICH FACE CRIMINAL INVESTIGATORS AS COMMUNITIES GROW FROM SMALL TOWNS TO URBAN CONURBATIONS WITH ATTENTION GIVEN TO THE PROBABILITY OF CLEARING A CRIME.
Abstract
IT BEGINS BY LOOKING AT THE BASIC METHOD OF CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION AND GOES ON TO SHOW THAT THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH CRIMES ONLY BEGINS TO DECREASE APPRECIABLY IF THERE IS A TEN PERCENTAGE PROBABILITY OR MORE THAT THE SET OF SUSPECTS DOES IN FACT CONTAIN THE CRIMINAL. THE PAPER THEN MAKES THE POINT THAT A BETTER MEASURE OF CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION DIVISION SUCCESS IS THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY LEVEL RATHER THAN THE DETECTION RATE. NEXT, USING THIS MEASURE, THE SUCCESS OF THE POLICE FOR AN AREA IS ESTIMATED AS IT GROWS FROM A VILLAGE TO AN URBAN CONURBATION. INCLUDED IN THIS WORK ARE SOME RESULTS FROM A RECENT SURVEY OF CRIMES IN A TYPICAL S.E. COUNTY FORCE. THE DIFFICULTIES WHICH FACE DETECTIVES ARE THEN REVIEWED AND THE INTRODUCTION OF COMPUTERS IS SUGGESTED. FINALLY, THE PAPER PROPOSES SOME STUDIES WHICH SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN TO SHOW HOW MEN AND COMPUTERS SHOULD BE BEST INTEGRATED AND HOW SUCH A COMBINATION COULD BE USED MOST EFFECTIVELY. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)